Five myths about 'Wronghorn'

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That would tell the tale

If, by 2006, "most of Microsoft's existing
corporate customers will have moved to Linux", it would be obvious to all that you were correct, but I would be very surprised to see that come true.

It may be that you are starting with a fault premise, i.e. that "UNIX is the #1
demanded IT skill". Most companies see IT as an expense and delight in cutting costs, IT being a prime target in many areas. Fat, juicy salaries for unix IT folk are constant targets for the head rollers and, as the siren song of Windows is sung, many of those heads are rolling every day. A look at the relative health of Sun vs their Windows-compatible shows the appeal of a lower cost infrastructure to the magnates of industry who are more interested in their own LOB than in the fate of Unix.

Sales of server equipment show a substantial shift to linux from traditional unix suppliers, but curiously the numerical increases of Windows servers outstrip those of linux. Linux gets raves for huge percentage gains, but they are starting from a narrow capture, so the effect is magnified and the absolute Windows gains are somewhat overlooked.

Of course that trend could reverse, but, given the characteristics of the market as we know it and the timeframes involved, 2006 is incredibly optomistic even for a linux advocate. They've been at it the same amount of time as Windows, after all, and have next to nothing to show for the effort to date.

Posted by: Bill Weisgerber   Posted on: 11/17/03 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use

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