Kurzweil: 'Exponential' change ahead for games, people

TalkBack 3 of 3:

« Previous

• Thread View
• Flat View

I still want my flying car.

Yeah - futurism. People pretending they can actually predict they know what the future looks like. Well, I'm still waiting for my flying car powered by fusion.

"With hardware that powerful, the limiting factor on what can be done with it becomes the software."

That's pretty much the case now for most areas of computing. Office software, the Internet, email, and other productivity applications barely touch the computer's resources. Yes, there are some specialized cases such as games that can still push the hardware to its limits for a while, but truth be known most software goes nowhere near taking full advantage of the hardware.

So that time when the limitations are in software rather than hardware are already here. Problem is, we don't know what to do with the extra CPU cycles. We have no clear vision of what we want software to look like.

"One of Kurzweil's biggest successes as an inventor was a 1979 print-to-speech reading device that was about the size of a washing machine and would "read" text on paper for the visually impaired."

That's nice. But it's also irrelevant. Just because somebody invents a print to speech machine does not make him an expert in future advances.

"Given the advance of technology, Kurzweil knew that the technology would become smaller and more powerful, eventually allowing for a handheld print-to-speech reading machine that blind people could carry with them to read newspapers, menus, street signs, or anything else they pointed at."

Oh, wow, miniaturization! What a novel concept! No - wait - the transistor was invented in 1947, and the integrated circuit was invented in 1949. He "predicted" what everybody else had known for over 30 years.

Yeah, everywhere I look, all of this is him "predicting" what was already accomplished. All he really did with his fancy phone was to tie together already existing technologies. Big deal. I don't think he's qualified at all to be a futurist - and frankly, I don't think anybody is. The future has shown time and time again that it's full of surprises.

I think solar panels becoming more efficient is certainly a possibility - although it might not be due to nanotechnology, which apparently he thinks has magical properties.

Medical technology going "faster than death," on the other hand, is not going to happen within my lifetime. In fact, I don't think it will happen for at least a few hundred years - if at all. Medical technology is increasing at a rapid rate for sure, but I don't think it's exponential like computer technology. In addition, I'm not certain that computer technology itself will hold onto this exponential growth indefinitely. I think it may eventually plateau as we hit physical limits.

Posted by: CobraA1   Posted on: 02/24/08 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use

Alert moderator to an offensive message

Subscribe to this discussion via Email or RSS

SponsoredWhite Papers, Webcasts, and Downloads

• The Impact of Virtualization Software on Operating Environments VMware Today's use of virtualization technology allows IT professionals to ... Download Now
• Three Steps You Need to Know to Stop Data Loss Varonis Sensitive data exposed to misuse or loss... it is the stuff of nightmares ... Download Now
• Reducing Server Total Cost of Ownership with VMware Virtualization Software VMware VMware virtualization enables customers to reduce their server TCO and ... Download Now