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Why not?

There have been few desktop migrations to Linux from Windows compared to the huge and growing number of Windows users.

But Linux has been successful with servers.
The number of installations is growing at a high percentage. Microsoft sales have been growing at a lower percentage, but in much greater numbers.

Unix server sales, on the other hand, are stable or declining.
The most reasonable conclusion is that Linux is replacing Unix. There have also been replacements of Windows servers by Linux at a comparative few Unix shops.

Given current trends, there's a strong likelihood that the server market will be reduced to Microsoft and Linux, with Microsoft gaining a larger and larger percentage of the total.

I think a major story in the past few years is the absence of growth in the Linux desktop over the past few years.
Microsoft has not issued a new version since XP in 2001. Linux has had time to mature, and the software has been improved.

So why did Microsoft prove invulnerable?

Partly because of the need for resources to promote Linux on the desktop. As discussed, no large company was willing to gamble on the success of desktop Linux.

Partly because people like Windows, or at least see no reason to look for alternatives.

Partly because of the reputation of Linux as limited to technologically sophisticated people.
Remember that a narrative doesn't have to be true to be effective. Microsoft stocks' stagnant value is the result of a counter-factual narrative.

Partly because of the Linux catch-22:
to sell to Windows users, Linux must appear much like Windows. But if Linux is much like Windows, what is the gain from changing?

Partly because the increasing authority of non-IT people in IT decisions benefits Microsoft.

Partly because of Microsoft's stability in a situation in which tech companies are in flux.
One might say of Microsoft: here today, here tomorrow, the reliable standard in a changing world.

Partly because Microsoft has concentrated on making Windows part of a connected set of software products. People looking to simplify or improve other software can standardize on Microsoft.

I'm sure that you can think of other reasons Microsoft's hold on the desktop proved impregnable during the time when competitors had their best chance in a long time.

Posted by: Anton Philidor   Posted on: 02/02/06 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use

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