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Recessions and The Great Depression were caused by Government Interventions: In a purely free market (without Government intervention), the rate of interest is determined by people?s ?willingness to save and invest? (which is called people?s time preferences) for future use, as compared to how much they are ?willingly to consume now?. If people change their ?willingness to save? (time preferences) and want to save more, the additional savings will cause the rate of interest to fall (increased supply of savings), and businesses will borrow and invest these additional savings. When the Central Bank (for example The Federal Reserve) increases the money supply and expands bank credit (which Central Banks does everywhere and all the time and always ?out of thin air?), it initially lowers the rate of interest and thereby misleads businessmen to act in a manner as if true savings have increased, which in turn leads businessmen to invests those supposed savings in capital goods. New projects that were not profitable before, will now suddenly with this lower interest rate, be profitable. While this process is working, the economy is in an inflationary boom phase (expansion). Capital goods such as stocks, real estate etc, will be more demanded and invested in, and prices of those will rise faster and more intensely in relation to consumption goods. As these supposed savings have worked their way through the economy, prices of goods, services and wages have generally increased to a height which prices for them would have not reached without these supposed savings.

As mentioned, people?s ?willingness to save and invest? have not changed (people?s time preferences have not changed) for it was only the Central Bank that increased, out of thin air, additional ?savings?. When supposed savings have worked their way through the economy and are received, finally, in increased wages, people still spend their real wages in the same manner as before. They save/ consume in real terms and in same proportion to each other, as before mentioned increase in supposed savings. Because of this, a lack of savings will occur and the rate of interest will rise. Projects that businessmen have invested in and that seemed to be profitable when the rate of interest was lowered are now revealed to be unprofitable. All those investments are revealed to be malinvestments. Businessmen will stop investing in those projects and lay off workers. Prices of capital goods, real estate, stocks etc, will fall sharply and relatively to the fall in prices of consumer goods. The economy is in a depression phase. When those investments are liquidated, the economy is adjusted to people?s ?willingness to save and invest? and to consume. The economic structure corresponds to the ratio which people want to save and consume. The economy is now healthy again.

Now then, in the 1920s the Federal Reserve, in the US, increased the money supply and bank credit, which in the 30s resulted in The Great Depression. The same story goes with Japan during the 1980s, which during the 90s, resulted in a depression (go to; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble).
In Sweden we had banks lending out heavily during the late 80s, which also, led to a depression in the 90s.
All business cycles are caused by the same phenomenon. Economic crisis can occur because of other factors such as wars, boycotts, oil prices etc, but pure business cycles have in common the same cause.

I have tried, in a very few words and in a easy manner, to explain Ludwig von Mises business cycle theory, which is also called the Austrian theory of the business cycle. All faults are mine. Friedrich August von Hayek elaborated this theory and received in 1974 the Nobel Prize for this. Go to;
http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1974/

If you want to know more about this theory, go to;
http://www.mises.org/rothbard/agd/contents.asp

Bj?rn Lundahl
G?teborg Sweden; Posted by: Björn Lundahl Posted on: 10/05/06 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use