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Nanotubes still have a long way to go. On the electronics side, when transistor first came out, it?s basically single device (transistor) vs single device (vacuum tube). Nowadays the entry bar is much higher; for ULSI/VLSI IC, the device is only a tiny part of the story. It takes decades to build up infrastructure and know-how to harness Si devices and achieve such scale of integration (>1 billion devices on a chip) with reasonable yield. It would take just as much effort for nanotube IC unless it?s a straight drop-in for Si transistor, which is definitely not the case. Even in the best-case scenario, nanotube IC can only be good for some niche applications for the foreseeable future.
As for mechanical applications, while it?s amazing properties, how to assembly a bunch of them to make them useful in macroscopic scale remains a big challenge. Remember, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Any method to tie/connect a large number of nanotubes together invariably introduces potential weak links. How to extend the amazing microscopic properties to our macroscopic world is not clear at all. In short, a lot of work still need to be done.
Nanotubes are amazing things, and much more R&D work should be funded, but let?s not get overly optimistic. It?s likely be a decade or two before it can displace transistor, even in the best case. - Posted by: samwise Posted on: 10/21/03 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use
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