Hardware strategies and programming models: What's coming

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[? Intel's strategy is to bet on people not making the transition to a new programming model.]

InHell has learned MUCH from its Itanic! Changing programming paradigms for HUGE speed increases is NOT a sellable point - at this time. As complicated as it is to change compilers to handle VLIW EPIC-style instructions, it is MORE complicated to program for "grid-like" processors. InHell has wisened up and learned the "human factor" of the computer biz. Eventually, Moore's Law runs out (45nm will be it!), and when THAT happens, silicon sizes will be FINITE - therefore, the ONLY way to increase computing "power" is to move "unneccessary stuff" from the chip - i.e. extra pipelining code. THAT'S when the Itanic will sail again! THAT is InHell's long-term strategy - and like the tortoise, EPIC WILL win the race.

? It's not clear where Microsoft is going - but the smart money is that they'll try to have it both ways: letting Windows/XP run out the x86 string, and focusing on entertainment functions for the X360 while working to deliver the distributed OS ideas behind the original Longhorn vision in the X360 network environment before leveraging that back into the office as an NT/x86 replacement.

M$ has WAY too much money, so they are investing in multiple streams of technology. Other than Windoze and Office, they have LOST MONEY at ALL of their other "misadventures", including X-box - but the key here is NOT MUCH money! I see M$ as the consumate roulette player - spreading their chips ALL over the table, in the hopes of hitting big. Windoze and Office keep the chips comming . . .

? IBM will use Linux on Cell throughout its product line and is clearly committed to developing tools that make existing Linux applications work well, working on advanced parallelization software for the science markets, and letting Sony drive work on the visualization side of the tools and applications business.

IBM DOESN'T CARE if they "win" with hardware or not. Their $350/hr consulting business is safe no matter WHAT the underlying technology is. The CELL is just their way of getting something out of their thousands of PhDs and patents. Their strategy with Linux is as "loss-leader", as they proclaim all sorts of great things you can do with Linux, but in the end, they can't do them and you end up getting upsold to P-series and AIX.

? Sun's public strategy is to build applications support on its open source heritage, integrate cheaper, faster, storage with their on chip SMP offerings, and push Solaris more and more into the direction of the Plan9 second generation Unix ideas: really the core Unix ideas migrated from a machine focus to a network focus -delivering user services from anywhere to anywhere.

Sun is right. Sun is best at delivering. But CIOs consider buying Sun as much as they consider buying Daewoo's - it just ISN'T on their radar, and probably never will be. The dot-com era was good for Sun because the buyers of their equipment were numerous and NOT large companies (by and large). The small start-ups found Sun the best for their needs (and many heard the "buzz" and just went with Sun anyway). The dot-bomb hurt Sun disproportionately - since they sold the most, those bankruptcy sales of used Sun equipment KILLED them. I see a nice article in ZDnet yesterday about how flash memory could replace tape! Interesting that Sun just spent too much money on StorageTek . . .

Posted by: Roger Ramjet   Posted on: 09/14/05 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use

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