Sun criticizes popular open-source license

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The flaw in your argument

"My prediction is that while there will be some movement towards open source solutions, once the warm, fuzzy feeling of being able to work on the source code wears off, a lot of people will lose interest in maintaining the projects, as there is no other motivation behind it other than the warm fuzzy feeling, and projects will become stagnant, especially as projects become more and more complex over time. For those projects you would need a well-managed, less-cooks-in-the-kitchen approach, with good QA to make a well-developed project. Open source projects just can't provide that."

Your argument seems to be based on an either - or approach to managing software licensing. While there are zealots on both sides that will support proprietary software or open source software to the exclussion of all others, the reality is that a happy medium will emerge.

Mostly, I see desktop software becoming more and more of a commodity. Office Suites, Browsers, Media Players, ect. will tend to go OSS as end users do not have hundreds to upgrade HW every 2 - 4 years and thousands to upgrade coresponding SW at the same time. Since almost all of these products are good enough now, there is no reasonable incentive for continuing to pay high rates for upgrades that may not be needed. OS's and basic utilities are another avenue that will go/has gone OSS. For many, there is no reason to pay ofr something new when what I have works fine. Upgrades will have to be free or cheap to get most people to move.

Where proprietary SW still has a place is in two areas. First, new technology costs to create and those costs must be recouped. Since there is a supply/demand tention to new technology, it makes sence for it to be proprietary from and economic and IP perspective until it becomes a commodity. Second, customisation will always be for pay and will usually be proprietary. Revealing how my company has customized Oracle implimentations (as an example) may reveal too much about how we do business and destroy some competitive advantage. The basic Db SW may be OSS even, but the customizations may need to be proprietary. Since this kind of work employs 70% of the working developers today, many of the employment concerns may be overblown.

In the end, even the labor to create often becomes devalued. As technolgy makes development easier, the skill needed to create goes down and therefor the value of the skill goes down. At the same time, as wages are high in a field, more people try to get jobs in that field creating a lage labor pool. This allows employers to shop for talent taking the cheapest new hire that fits their needs, thereby lowering the average wage.

I believe that we will see these thing begin to stabilize over the next 5 - 10 years, but do not expect computing to be as ubiquitous as it has become and the mass market remain willing to pay premiums for the service.

Posted by: Mack DaNife   Posted on: 04/06/05 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use

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