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Funny how I see History constantly repeating itself. It seems like just the other year, AMD was down on it's luck and could get anything right when a cocky Intel decided to make some awkward and risky moves that AMD execs just called blatently stupid. AMD got hold of the 200 MHz Bus putting them in the lead over Intel just for a second. Intel quickly recovered with the Pentium 4, but with a shakey launch and a lawsuit questioning why their Pentium 4s performed slower than Pentium 3s. While Intel decided to try the expensive RD RAM which wasn't accepted. AMD took a simpler route and stuck with SD RAM and ran with a cheaper more open technology called DDR. Intel later changed their mind and decided to follow in AMD's footsteps. Very few people said much about it. But in 2003, AMD released the ever so popular AMD 64bit chip, While Intel has been trying for years to get their non x86 Itanium Chip to garner some acceptance. Now Intel is again following in the footsteps of AMD and adding 64 bit extensions to their 32 bit processors.

What does this all mean in regards to the world of computing, especially in regards to Apple and Microsoft.

Some times the big guy starts to flail around and make stupid mistakes while the little guy happens to get his stuff together and take over for the slack of the big guy. This folks is what we call capitalism. The underdog knocking over the 800 pound gorilla of the market is what America was built on. Forgive the preachiness of this blurb, for I am about 100 keystrokes away from standing up and singing the star spangled banner.

Back to Microsoft and Apple, Lately Microsoft has been bumbling around with their long term developments that are continuously being stripped of features, most notably, Longhorn, and the less mentioned Yukon. Both sound fantastic and will probably revolutionize the Windows Market once they are released. Then only real question is, will there still be a market for Windows when they are release.

My predictions have been off in the past, but I hope they get better with age. I did predict that AMD would shake up the market with the K7 Chip, I also predicted that AMD would become a huge player and lead the way with 64 bit x86 computing. Both of which came true. Still in the works is my Prediction of 2006, which I would like to call the year of the Penguin. I predict that then Linux will begin serious conquest of the desktop market, around 30%. My only wild card is Apple, who can very easily upset this prediction. I do predict in 5 years, Apple will become dominant in the Desktop market, but I would like to alter my prediction for Linux to say that it will hold 30% of the x86 market.

In summary, Bill won't be killed by these latest blunders, but he won't be the powerhouse that he once was.

Posted by: nucrash   Posted on: 01/17/05 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use

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