IDC: Linux PC sales to hit $10 billion in 2008

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These studies are all but meaningless when it comes to Linux, but ...

they have profound effects. Large businesses will actually make strategic decisions based on these studies simply because they are the only clues available on Linux market penetration. Why would Microsoft fund studies on Linux? Because those studies tip the marketplace in one direction or another. And for the same reason, those corporate giants supporting Linux will be offering up their own studies to counter those funded by Microsoft. In reality NOBODY knows or can know what is going on with Linux. With EVERY other major software product, it is real easy to know what is happening from the sales numbers. Linux has no sales numbers. There are support numbers. There are retail numbers. But there are NO OVERALL sales numbers like there are for every other major product on the market. And that is driving corporate planners nuts. And because of that inability to project things accurately, a whole lot hangs on perception. If the Linux desktop is perceived to be innocuous, its adoption will just creep along largely unnoticed. If, however, Linux is perceived to be taking root on the desktop, application vendors are likely to suddenly begin to offer Linux desktop products, which will itself accellerate the adoption of the Linux desktop. This is exactly the synergy that Microsoft is desperately trying to hold off, and the same synergy that IBM, Novell and the rest are trying to set in motion. Personally, I suspect it will be a jagged edge sort of thing where Linux is one day perceived as being nowhere on the desktop and the next day is perceived as making great strides, all because of the total lack of hard data regarding market penetration. Its all perception, and that perception can cut both ways. In the meantime the corporate deployments continue. Note that in this recent deal we are talking about 3,000 Linux workstations in one shot. And these are in fact Intel boxes, not PowerPC:

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/IBM-Creates-Extreme-Availability-for-NYSE-38966.html

And so do the studies. Note the paragraph dealing with Linux v Windows in this one:

http://www.crmbuyer.com/story/Worldwide-PC-Market-To-Double-by-2010-Forrester-Says-39010.html

At some point in this process, major ISVs begin to throw in the towel and market desktop apps for Linux, and then Linux desktop really takes off.

Posted by: George Mitchell   Posted on: 12/15/04 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use

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