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The Informational Cascades Problem
Both the blogging community and the press are vulnerable to a
problem called "informational cascades," which basically turns
them into echo chambers where the same beliefs (e.g., "these
documents prove that George Bush was AWOL") are accepted
uncritically by the people who hear them. (Informational
cascades are what cause stock market bubbles and fashion
crazes, among other things.) The best way to break the cascade
is to provide some dissenting analysis. In this particular case,
the blogging community provided some counter-evidence to the
claim that the mainstream press had already accepted from CBS
and was passing on fairly uncritically. It could easily happen the
other way around, though, where the bloggers are the ones who
get it wrong. (You could argue that the mistaken belief that
Howard Dean would win the Democratic nomination was fueled
by the blogging community.)

Informational cascades don't happen because people are dumb
or gullible; they're a kind of a network effect that emerges out of
individuals making perfectly rational evaluations based on what
they hear (or think they hear) from the people who made
decisions before them. To read more about how they happen in
a variety of different situations (including political campaigns),
see http://www.elearnmag.org/subpage/sub_page.cfm?
section=3&list_item=25&page=1
Posted by: mfeldstein   Posted on: 09/14/04 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use
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Here's my research  Nigel Johnstone | 09/10/04
totally wrong  zijiang | 09/10/04
No I did it correctly  Nigel Johnstone | 09/10/04
Irrelevant  frgough@... | 09/10/04
It I had an original memo, I could tell you if it was computer generated  CobraA1 | 09/10/04
You're not omnipresent  Nigel Johnstone | 09/11/04
Denial of reality  frgough@... | 09/11/04
Hey, BB...  bchesmer | 09/11/04
Disagree  Nigel Johnstone | 09/12/04
Here's another illustration  Nigel Johnstone | 09/12/04
Just asked the secretary  voska | 09/13/04
whether or not they are forgeries...  ryusen | 09/13/04
Zzzzzzz......Wake up!  Spoon Jabber | 09/13/04
really?  ryusen | 09/13/04
Absolutes?  Spoon Jabber | 09/13/04
yeah well,  ryusen | 09/13/04
I'll bet you a donut...  Spoon Jabber | 09/13/04
you could be right, but  ryusen | 09/13/04
Dead wrong...do you work for the bush campaign?!  el1jones | 09/11/04
And just to rub it in... here's the link and quote!  el1jones | 09/11/04
I dont see the logic bridge between  zijiang | 09/11/04
Republicans planted phony memo  Frank D'Angeli | 09/10/04
Prove Karl did it  Nigel Johnstone | 09/12/04
All within the realm of possibility  Eggs Ackley_z | 09/13/04
whilte there is no proof....  ryusen | 09/13/04
Who, Nixon?  Spoon Jabber | 09/13/04
ok...  ryusen | 09/13/04
More info  KTLA | 09/10/04
Anti Bush  Alan Gold | 09/11/04
What a joke!  Joe Blow_z | 09/11/04
I just hope people can count next election  V Sanders | 09/11/04
Shouldn't that be...  Spoon Jabber | 09/13/04
are you kidding  V Sanders | 09/12/04
Amazing coincidence of timing  Chad_z | 09/12/04
That's easy!  WhoIsDaMan | 09/13/04
Uhhh, yeah real amazing  Spoon Jabber | 09/13/04
Yep  Bob1234 | 09/13/04
Notice that the administration has not questioned veracity of the documents  K B | 09/13/04
More info please  Spoon Jabber | 09/13/04
Wow, and only four years into his current term  FilledOut | 09/13/04
The Informational Cascades Problem  mfeldstein | 09/14/04

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