Microsoft sees sales hurdles ahead

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Did you read the article?

They are expecting to keep their existing share. Anything in here saying they expect to lose share to open source?

You bet your boots! Re-read Mr. Conners' statement - the "and servers" part. Microsoft claims to need to retain server share, and I'll tell you in the long run it won't happen. In the near term there will be sales to keep legacy systems alive, but the Fortune 500 are moving on; according to suvey cited in this very publication, smaller businesses will follow as soon as they can find the way.

For the best exemplar, take a look at the USPTO's solicitation announcement. In the client-server era, PTO accumulated in excess of 125 stovepipe systems, with typically one or more HP-UX boxes and a like number of Windows servers per system. Those Windows boxes are an administrative nightmare - two to three times the administrator cost per end user. For the past two years, PTO has been re-designing the enterprise architecture, unifying, symplifying and integrating. There will be no Windows servers in the target architecture, nor in that of other major players who are sharing best practices in enterprise architecture. A single operating system allows us to consolidate our staff, training and other support, while shopping around among the vendors for the most cost-effective solutions - end of lock-in. MS loss of share? Yes, indeed.

So how about the desktop? Strong indications are that Microsoft's days as "OPEC of the desktop" are numbered. I just returned from an executive breakfast at which I inquired of one of the IBMers about their open-source-on-the-desktop pilot. It was amazing the number of others who gathered around, listening aptly and adding their own plans to move in the direction of open source on the desktop. And it wasn't just the TCO factors (separate support staff, too many calls "to the edge," etc), which are my concern, it was the visceral reaction to the name Microsoft; Mssrs Ballmer and Gates have worked hard to achieve their pariah status. These folks are positively motivated to find a way out of the MS lock and are expending energy on it. And since we currently have a solution that works on the desktop, and the latest Office 2003/Windows XP clinkers don't provide any motive to "upgrade," they can stand pat while paving the way for the next generation solution. The corporate desktop isn't nearly as secure as it looked six months ago.

Home use? Not an area where I have any experience, other than personal, but it looks like the lock on distribution channels will keep the archade game/music download/entertainment center market safe for the moment. However, that's not going to make the numbers to justify that 30-1 pe ratio or recover your late-2000 investment.

Penalty of loss of job or imprisonment is a major sales tool for selling open source. It would be a major sales tool for any product, but let's leave Fellini for the movie theater, okay?

Luddism. Automation and automation upgrades have been a threat to the workforce as far back as I can remember, when we called them "Univac machines." Well, guess what - we've survived. So now we cut the operational costs by diminishing those McJobs called "MSCE." But there is still a lot of work to be done, at least as much time as I have left in the workforce, integrating and upgrading. If you can program, we can use you. If you can learn to program, we can use you. It isn't eliminating the workforce, it's elevating it. There is no need for a latter-day WPA or corporate charity for Microsoft; if they can find a way to add value, fine. As long as we can make our customers more productive, we have a win-win.

Whining not necessary. Thank you.

Posted by: IT_User   Posted on: 01/29/04 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use

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