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The past is a fairly reliable prediction of the future.
Hi Ed,

Yes, I agree. All of this is both expected and par for the course.

The naysayers aside, the majority of *home* users only upgrade their operating system as part of a new purchase and this drives adoption up slowly. When corporations adopt, it is often wholesale under SA or VLA and is, therefore, somewhat invisible if looking only at sales numbers.

Ultimately the hype (both by the pro and the anti Microsoft crowds) does little to affect overall adoption. People buy systems on a predictable schedule, and it really hasn't changed all that much in the last decade or so. They use whatever OS comes on their new system, be it XP or Vista or OS-X, until it -- too -- is ultimately replaced with their next new computer.

Playing with the various numbers is an interesting mathematical mental exercise, but proves little. Vista adoption rates will probably mirror those of it's predecessors... since as far as consumers are concerned, the more things change the more they stay the same.

My predictions for 2008? Most home users will continue to choose between OS-X and Windows, and generally Windows will continue to be the most popular due to familiarity, software selection, and inertia. Vista will be sold on new machines and will be slowly adopted at the corporate level *after* the first service pack and once new drives are released to resolve the current issues. Linux will continue to dominate in the security conscious data centers, and will gain slow traction on the desktop in small/home office environments. BSD will continue to be better than them all, but will be lost in the noisy hype of the Mac/Windows/Linux fanboys.

Just my $0.02 USD ... your mileage may vary.

Have a happy and healthy New Year!

Regards,
Jon
Posted by: JonathonDoe   Posted on: 12/31/07 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use
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The past is a fairly reliable prediction of the future.  JonathonDoe | 12/31/07
Slower adoption is inevitable  Rick_R | 12/31/07
One thing I really like about Vista is...  ye | 12/31/07
re: Another thing I really like about Vista is...  n0neXn0ne | 12/31/07
Do you have a point?  ye | 12/31/07
The OS i use IS (nt)  n0neXn0ne | 12/31/07
Message has been deleted.  ye | 01/01/08
And don't forget the slow startup and shutdown times  hbashman@... | 01/02/08
Fixed quite a while ago  andrewjg | 01/03/08
Not quite  gjohnson37@... | 01/03/08
that's cause  otaddy | 01/03/08
Actually, tehre are several solutions from MS  Ed Bott ZDNet Moderator | 01/03/08
OK, quick question...  Ed Bott ZDNet Moderator | 12/31/07
re: XP killer app was the name....  n0neXn0ne | 12/31/07
Really?  notsofast | 01/02/08
I can answer this one...  ju1ce | 01/03/08
Wasn't an app but what it replaced  devlin_X | 01/04/08
XP replaced ME?????  rett@... | 01/04/08
Yes it replaced ME....  devlin_X | 01/04/08
For what it's worth...  D. T. Schmitz | 12/31/07
I agree  doug@... | 12/31/07
Security is a big selling point.  ye | 12/31/07
re:Security is a big selling point.  n0neXn0ne | 12/31/07
UNIX is not more secure than Windows.  ye | 12/31/07
Unix has been lucky for 40 years ... i'll take that (nt)  n0neXn0ne | 12/31/07
No, it has not. Look up "morris worm"  ye | 01/01/08
pls. splain to me... then...  n0neXn0ne | 12/31/07
Who uses *nix?  mdemuth | 12/31/07
who uses *nix? Obiviously not YOU, next question (nt)  n0neXn0ne | 12/31/07
Marketshare  ye | 01/01/08
so simple even a layman can understand  LegendsOfBatman | 01/02/08
RE: so simple even a layman can understand  devlin_X | 01/04/08
RE: RE: so simple even a layman can understand  MarkKB | 01/16/08
Facts please (NT)  devlin_X | 01/04/08
That argument is more for the consumer...  MGP2 | 12/31/07
Actually, no...  Ed Bott ZDNet Moderator | 01/01/08
Very true  RocketEater | 01/01/08
In Vista, it doesn't  Ed Bott ZDNet Moderator | 01/01/08
Jumping through hoops  Bozzer | 01/08/08
That's ******** ye  hbashman@... | 01/02/08
Selling point to who exactly?  ju1ce | 01/03/08
Security allows control. But Paranoia ..... ?  w5vyc@... | 04/10/08
For businesses,  notsofast | 01/02/08
Issues with the stats  voyager529 | 12/31/07
Actually the best place is....  ShadeTree | 12/31/07
Only good for web usage  j.m.galvin | 12/31/07
Well it does produce some interesting numbers.  mrOSX | 12/31/07
The adoption rate is 9.19% not 3.73% (nt)  ye | 12/31/07
Wrong...  mrOSX | 12/31/07
Right. It's 9.19%  ye | 12/31/07
Look @ Nov 2006 is shows  mrOSX | 12/31/07
What part of...  ye | 01/01/08
Rate is a change of something with respect to something else  Cardhu | 12/31/07
Very Misleading. Provide a link.  osreinstall | 01/01/08
Sorry you're wrong  Ed Bott ZDNet Moderator | 01/01/08
No I am afraid you are.  osreinstall | 01/01/08
One BIG error  Ed Bott ZDNet Moderator | 01/01/08
And a lot gave up on it.  osreinstall | 01/01/08
Ed refuted  nizuse | 01/02/08
One thing..  mrOSX | 01/03/08
Another thing.  osreinstall | 01/03/08
What are you talking about?  ShadeTree | 01/02/08
I agree  Xwindowsjunkie | 01/02/08
Issues with the stats  chillyb9000@... | 01/03/08
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  tony@... | 01/02/08
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  bruce.robbie@... | 01/02/08
Throughout History, There Have Been Failures  chessmen | 01/02/08
and there are those who hope for failure  otaddy | 01/02/08
bootlliker is being overly polite  hbashman@... | 01/02/08
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  chmcmaho | 01/02/08
Why the rollback?  otaddy | 01/02/08
Is that an "almost" quite well  hbashman@... | 01/02/08
No.  otaddy | 01/03/08
You know what's funny  ju1ce | 01/03/08
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  egrand@... | 01/02/08
Yes, customers should get a refund  otaddy | 01/02/08
" MS can easily fix the issue"  hbashman@... | 01/02/08
The issue being lack of features  otaddy | 01/03/08
Please review your numbers  TristanGrimaux | 01/02/08
Ed's missing the point??  hbashman@... | 01/02/08
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  dbell2@... | 01/02/08
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  christopher.a.smart@... | 01/02/08
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  mike-attwood@... | 01/02/08
If it aint broke dont fix it  custserv@... | 01/02/08
Message has been deleted.  hbashman@... | 01/02/08
The conclusion and a question  stomfi@... | 01/02/08
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  jabster17 | 01/02/08
Adoption rate depends on the problems  tony@... | 01/03/08
Fixed quite a while ago  andrewjg | 01/03/08
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  tshannon@... | 01/03/08
What is really going on here  rett@... | 01/04/08
May I ask who cares about this subject, or what is its point?  zaine_ridling | 01/05/08
Some questions for you  otaddy | 01/05/08
Apparently, you do.  rtk | 01/06/08
It's Too Early To Tell Yet  Cardhu | 01/07/08
RE: Windows adoption rates: a LACK of INNOVATION demonstrated by Microsoft  robs90@... | 01/06/08
You do make some good points  otaddy | 01/06/08
Spyware and Viruses Remain Serious Problems for Windows Users  Cardhu | 01/07/08
Very Nice Advice  Cardhu | 01/07/08
i agree, but some more work need to be done  bicard | 01/08/08
if i bought a new camera; can i just plug this into linux and expect it to  Ole Man | 01/10/08
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  gmangrant@... | 01/17/08
Vista over XP  gmangrant@... | 01/17/08
would you consider  rtk | 01/18/08
A few good reasons for slow Vista adoption  Ole Man | 01/19/08
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  rlawler | 01/19/08
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  Sleeper Service | 02/02/09
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  rdemena | 04/17/09
RE: Windows adoption rates: a history lesson  jhstoneca | 04/17/09

What do you think?

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