Creating a new data type to better model risky outcomes

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Let's See If I've Got This Right

Tom presents his answer, which is almost guaranteed to be not
precisely correct (and which the single number per cell folks are
calling wrong.)

Jane presents her range of answers, which still may not include the
right answer and, if it did, may or may not be the one the dist model
returned as the 70% likely one.

Let's make this practical. Bob says tomorrow will have no rain. Jane
says there's a 40% chance of rain and 3% chance of rain exceeding 0.5
inch. Jane will be immediately asked, "Do we take an umbrella,
umbrella and wading boots or neither?"

You report these folks have taken their dist-sheets and can give us an
"answer about political turmoil." Did they go back and check and find
the sheets call a high probability that Lenin would throw out the
Trotskyites? Or was "bad things after Czar abdicates" good enough for
government work? How did it do with the Roundhead revolution?

Posted by: DannyO_0x98   Posted on: 08/26/09 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use

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