Prediction markets and the madness of crowds

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Entertainment

I can see the value in your suggestion as a form of entertainment, but unless you were somehow able to convince others of the accuracy of its predictive abilities, it would remain only a curiosity. And considering how many people in the world today can't be moved to change their minds even by cold hard facts, I doubt you would be able to accomplish such even with proof. Someone would probably just claim you were being paid by whichever 'side' they didn't agree with, and dismiss your proof on that basis (and call you a shill as well).

As an aside, I have to say that you should be able to predict when your blogs will draw the discussions you want and when they won't. In this one, for example, you are wanting a discussion of prediction markets, but your comments along the way about realclimate.org and dailykos are only going to draw out the fanatics on both sides of the issues, and the discussion is going to turn into the same old tired name-calling and hate-mongering so typical of what passes for 'discourse' these days. There are certain 'trigger' topics that somehow cause people to lose their minds and become irrational, and global warming and politics are two of them.

You do better at getting the discussions you want when loaded comments such as the ones mentioned above are not included. Now I'm not saying that I necessarily disagree with your opinions of realclimate.org and dailykos, mind you, but just that including such things in your blogs diverts the discussions away from where you want them to go.

Carl Rapson

Posted by: rapson   Posted on: 02/14/07 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use

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