The coming wireline business implosion (and how you'll wind up paying for it)

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King Canute Must Die

I am persuaded by the ideas generally found in OPLAN discussions:

1. The 5 major industrial revolutions in the last 200 years have all followed the same pattern: the previous incumbents have been swept away having ignored the incoming tide e.g. newspapers, the music industry, banks, ... they stand like King Canute before the sea.

2. Given the greed and intransigence of the legacy corporations, government intervention is necessary to prevent widespread suffering. I like the Australian government's approach to fibre roll-out and note the UK Conservative Party have pledged to allow local determination of networking infrastructure, should they be elected. Historically it has taken 60 years for each revolution to complete the necessary transformation. My theory is that two generations must pass to eradicate old habits completely; we are half way through the Information Age.

3. A collaborative, efficient solution is required to ensure sustainability. Note that at present rights holders, network operators, ISP's and consumers are all fighting their own corner. Each has valid claims but must be prepared(forced) to concede. Copyright asis doesn't work any more.

The UK gambling transformation was a good example: rather than see no tax as all betting moved to Internet sites abroad the Government changed the way it collected tax (not on individual bets but on the profits of the betting companies), betting firms introduced new products, customers had a much better deal and gambling boomed so the firms made more profit ... levies to support racecourses were also distributed from the increased revenues.

The need to collaborate with consumers is greater this revolution: one word - piracy.

I am reminded of the (original) horse whisperer's reply when asked how he made animals behave: "I create an environment where the most palatable thing for the horse to do is my bidding."

Posted by: johnfenjackson@...   Posted on: 05/18/09 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use

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