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On Investment in Connected Multi-Nationals

I use to joke that companies with close relations to Microsoft likely were in trouble and not worthy of investor interest because companies that were doing well wouldn't stoop to dealing with known criminal organizations. Deutsche Telekom was one of those companies at the time of the joke.

With today's revelations in the WSJ, that half of the trades executed on the NYSE are trades made without human intervention - meaning trades by Artificial Intelligence (AI), I suspect a new heuristic to be applied that will further the decline of the old EU/ Harvard business school kind of manager and the rise of the American Programmer. Let me give it a shot in English.

Owing to talk shows and bloggers and US citizen backlash against responses to Mad Cow, Katrina, Mississippi Bridge Failure, Enron, WorldCom, Microsoft, Al Quaida, and multi-national corporate wrong doing in general, investors will shun stocks that are sensitive to the backlash.

A simple proxy for which stocks to shun is to count the number of non-US managers and board members and similar minded individuals such as graduates of Harvard business school. A second proxy for which stocks to buy is to count the number of Stanford Berkeley and West Coast of the USA graduates on the board and in management of the company of interest.

Very clearly a sea change is happening in business. The managers who hold on to notions common with Europeans and European loving institutions like Harvard - the old school folks in power who like doing business out of the public eye - can not be expected to do well in polite societies that have adopted a transparent and open and freely-discussed-with-out-fear attitude, best demonstrated on the Wikipedia forums. That is the USA as of now and it will become the Poland and China of the near future. It is a new development.

To test the rule of thumb, note the decline in value of mult-nationals known to be operated by old-schoolers who tried to influence technology stocks. Here Patty Dunn is our girl. Here identity-theft warrant less wire tapping ways are the ways of EU multi-corporate officers such as Barcleys Bank where she also served as a corporate officer. See the decline in value of Barcleys. It is happening. Now who are the officers of VMware?

Posted by: mighetto   Posted on: 08/15/07 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use

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