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Vista a flop? certainly not
Windows is so much deployed that I have serious doubt that it will be a flop; even if its market decreases significantly, it will still provide billions to Microsoft and its partners, much enough to let them live for long again.
That's the main reason why so many organizations are still choosing Windows: they have extremely good reason that the system will live for long enough to be supported by a significant market for years; in a world where long-term strategies are really difficult to find, they are choosing the easiest way to make business, so they give fuel to Microsoft.

The only way to reverse the curve is to really promote alternate OSes (Unix flavors including BSD variants, Linux, and MacOS X) so that they get significant market shares, and allow more organizations to take such decisions with less long-term business risks. This is already possible for millions of small or medium organizations. For large organizations, unfortunately, such strategy is still not possible, so Linux is used only in some specific "niches" of their infrastructures.

Slowly, alternate OSes are taking their places, pushed by Linux, but it is really too soon (and irrealist) to claim that Vista will be a flop, given that the existing market has not changed significantly before Vista was officially launched: there are tons of deployed softwares that really need to run on Windows, including for new:replacement machines.

Like it or not, but Vista will be sold and will be a success for Microsoft and its partners, and it's really easy to predict, even if Vista is not so much a revolution.

The alternative is growing, helped with the new mobile computing solutions markets, and lots of dedicated appliances (including game consoles). The revolution will come when most people won't need a desktop or notebook PC and to configure a OS to connect to the Internet or even to use office suites:

In this growing long-term trend, Windows is really not a major player, and Microsoft has understood that: Vista is not tuned to run correctly in the appliance markets, and not even in the market field of large enterprise servers. In those markets, Microsoft is loosing most battles everytime in favor of free solutions, based on Linux or similar Unix clones.

That's what Apple has understood, and his renewed health is the consequence of its choice of strategy: from a software maker to a service provider, with the iPod only as a winning flagship!
Posted by: PhilippeV   Posted on: 02/07/07 You are currently: a Guest | Members login | Terms of Use

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